The headline act over the past few months has been the (now very real) possibility of a Greek exit from the eurozone which has smashed confidence in the equity markets, while sending bond yields surging.

Another rising threat is the hurtle towards bear markets in Chinese equities, which have wiped off double digits in the space of weeks after a stellar rise in the early part of 2015 despite weak economic conditions.

In the United States, federal policy tightening is tracking at a painfully slow pace but an interest rate hike - the first since 2006 - is now all but assured for the first half of the new financial year.

At home, the Australian sharemarket has stemmed the losses from the sell-off in the big four banks which was spurred on by the threat of increased capital requirements, but there are still concerns the Reserve Bank of Australia may seek to cut interest rates again if all-important business investment figures don't improve.

Global bond yields have also experienced their share of volatility, in response to global central bank movement, highlighted by Europe's monetary stimulus program  and a move towards tightening from the US Federal Reserve.

We asked some of Australia's top investors, economists and analysts which financial markets they had their eye on ahead of the new financial year, and an explanation as to why.

Here are their responses:

John Abernethy, chief investment officer, Clime Asset Management

Australia cannot remain competitive and our economy will be challenged by a high Australian dollar. It's my strong belief that the $A needs to weaken to below US70¢ if current commodity prices are maintained. Indeed, weakness against all currencies of our major trading partners is required.

The tracking movements of the $A against the prices of our major export commodities – iron ore, coal and LNG remains crucial for determining the outlook for Australia. The TWI is the weighted average value of the Australian dollar in relation to the currencies of Australia's trading partners. A cursory look at the chart below shows that our currency remains elevated.

Andrew Martin, Portfolio Manager, Alphinity Investment Management

FY15 is looking like another year of overall no earnings growth in the Australian market, driven primarily by large negative revisions in the resources sector, with industrials and financials holding up far better.  FY16 expectations for overall growth are currently around where FY15 were this time last year. The question is where will they end up in a year's time?

Given the market PE rating is already a bit above long term averages, we think some positive earnings growth is needed to push the market forward from here. This will be helped by a weaker A$ and company productivity initiatives.  Watch earnings revisions as a guide. The weaker earnings expectations get the more the market will seek out those companies with greater earnings certainty.

Ben K Jarman, senior economist, JPMorgan

I'll be watching business credit growth. The economy has been growing below potential for a few years now, and the RBA have been cutting the cash rate to deliver a recovery. However, most of the effects of low interest rates in the cycle to date have been financial, rather than economic: the housing market, particularly in Sydney, keeps heating up, while the recovery in business credit has been muted.

RBA officials have bemoaned this lack of "animal spirits" in corporate sentiment as a missing link in the recovery of non-mining business investment. The strength of business credit growth through 2015/16 will be a key barometer of whether the transmission mechanism is working, and whether the transition of the economy back to 3 per cent GDP growth is on track.

Raiko Shareef, currency strategist, Bank of New Zealand

The New Zealand Dollar is the worst performing major currency of 2015, thanks to a grim outlook for the dairy sector and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy response. The RBNZ cut its cash rate by 25bps in June to 3.25 per cent, and we expect a drop to 3 per cent in July. In the lead-up to June, the speculative community of investors drove NZD/USD lower, in anticipation of policy easing.

By the most widely quoted measure of market positioning, the net position on NZD/USD is at its shortest ever. This picture is consistent with both anecdotal evidence and recent price action. Amid the cacophony of analysts suddenly uber-bearish on NZD, we instead wonder whether pessimism on NZ is at its peak. The market is looking for a third rate cut beyond July, which we're not sure will be delivered. We also forecast dairy prices to start recovering towards year's end. Over the next six months, we are wary that positioning might revert toward neutral, and that NZD might not end up holding 2015's wooden spoon.

UNEMPLOYMENT

Saul Eslake, Economist

In thinking about the Australian economy and the RBA in particular, I'll be looking at the trend measure of the unemployment rate, and at the NAB monthly business survey (in particular the hiring and capex intentions components of that survey).

In trend terms it looks as though the unemployment rate peaked towards the end of last year - whereas the RBA and the Treasury, as well as most market economists, continue to insist that we are yet to see the peak in unemployment.

Craig James, chief economist, CommSec

While most analysts focus on the seasonally adjusted measure, I think it is the trend estimate that is important. Over the past 30 years when the trend jobless rate starts falling, it tends to keep falling to reach a new base. And at present there are early signs that the jobless rate has peaked. If this is indeed confirmed, it has major implications for interest rates, the Aussie dollar, consumer spending, economic growth and the sharemarket.

Warren Hogan, chief economist, ANZ Research

The unemployment rate is the only economy wide statistic we get on a monthly basis, so it should, when looking through the month to month noise; give us a good read on economic momentum. It is also critical for economic policy, both fiscal and monetary policy. Right now the data is telling us the unemployment rate has stopped rising, that is implying therefore that it may have 'peaked'. If this indeed turns out to be the case, then we should be confident that the non-mining recovery is gaining traction. It will also rule out the need for further rate cuts from the RBA given the already low level of interest rates in Australia. Finally, it will be a signal to FX markets that the AUD is supporting the economy and significant further depreciation is not likely.

David McDonald, chief investment strategist Australia, Credit Suisse Private Banking

We are watching credit growth in the Eurozone. It has just turned positive again and quantitative easing by the ECB is intended to boost lending and thus economic activity. "European recovery" is one of our key investment themes. We have turned more positive on Eurozone equities, as macro economic conditions continue to improve, and the European Central Bank's asset purchase program should continue to support earnings. At this stage of the recovery, consumer sentiment should further improve, and the investment case for consumer-related stocks now appears particularly strong.

We are also focused on wage growth in the USA. This is an indicator that the US Federal Reserve is watching as they consider normalising interest rates. The Fed is watching both for signs of continued improvement in the labour market and also that inflation is picking up.  We are encouraged by signs that wages growth is finally picking up in the USA, suggesting that the economic recovery is now flowing through and that consumers will have more money in their pockets. We expect the Fed to put through the first interest rate hike in September. This should also support a rebound in the USD and thus a lower AUD helping to boost our competitiveness.

Michael Blythe, chief economist, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Nominal GDP is the broadest measure of income in the economy and covers all sectors (households, business, government). Income growth has been very weak in recent years – at recession-type growth rates as the commodity price boom unwinds. This income weakness explains many of the risk factors at work.  Weak company profits, for example, are one factor behind the reluctance of companies to lift capex and hire new workers. Weak household incomes constrain consumer spending and pressure household balance sheets. Business and consumer confidence suffer in this environment.

Nominal GDP, in the end, is the tax base. So weak nominal GDP growth explains the trouble governments have had with the revenue side of the budget equation. Our exposure to the commodity price cycle and the China story that lies behind that has increased.

Annette Beacher, head of Asia Pacific research, TD Securities

Net returns at the 2 year part of the curve are still too attractive for global money; with the AUD cash rate locked in at 2 per cent for some time, even when the US Federal Open Markets Committee does lift its cash rate the AUD return remains attractive.  Other AAA rated sovereigns include Canada and Singapore.  It is this net yield that keeps a floor under the AUD and why we see only a gentle deceleration to US75¢ by end-2015.

David Bassanese, chief economist, BetaShares Capital

The best and most timely indicators of the Australian economy are business and consumer confidence measures. They are effectively like a monthly tracking "poll" on the economy. We can't expect much of a lift in consumer spending or business investment over the coming year unless confidence in these areas improves from current still fairly lacklustre levels.  If both households and business remain cautious, the pressure will be on the RBA to try and support both through even lower interest rates.

Andrew Clifford, Portfolio Manager, Platinum Asset Management

The most interesting equity market for the next several years will be India. The reforms of the Modi government will release a wave of investment spending that will unleash the economic potential of the country.  The more immediate issue though has been rising real interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of India have been to slow to cut rates despite rapidly falling inflation, suppressing credit growth and economic activity. We will be watching for a turn in credit growth as the RBI continues to ease monetary policy leading not only to better economic growth, but also to next leg in the Indian bull market.

Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist, AMP Capital

The global manufacturing PMI is an aggregation of individual country Purchasing Managers' Indicators produced each month by a company called Markit, which are based on surveys of businesses that tell us how business conditions are progressing. As shown in the chart this is a good timely guide to global economic growth.

The overall picture from the global manufacturing PMIs released for June is that global growth remains relatively modest and uneven with falls in the US and Japan, but gains in Europe and China. In many ways this is good - too weak and we worry about recession and falling profits but too strong and the risks swing to inflation and an eventual aggressive central bank monetary tightening and a surge in bond yields. So the best outcome for a continuation of the cyclical bull market in global shares is that the Global PMI continues to meander around current relatively constrained levels.

Connor Grindlay, chief investment officer, Kaizen Capital

The world's central banks have printed record amounts of money and pumped it into the financial system. Yet, traditional inflation measures like the consumer price index (CPI) in many developed countries are close to 0 per cent. However, there is inflation in the system and this charts shows how US house prices have increased by over 30 per cent from their lows over the past 3 years. This is great news for industries exposed to this theme like banks and home builders, where we are invested internationally.

But, we must keep a close eye on global property inflation as house prices are rising rapidly everywhere (Australia - ex-mining towns - too). We all got into trouble in 2008 when house price bubbles burst in the UK, US etc. Remember that the key driver today is not smart house buying, but record low interest rates everywhere. Time to take some property profits off the table? We think so.

Sebastian Evans, chief investment officer, NAOS Asset Management

The same indicator based on US data has been the topic of much discussion globally as a key indicator to when the Federal Reserve will increase rates in the US.

In Australia though this indicator is useful for a read through to consumer confidence as well as business confidence and the outlook for interest rate levels in Australia and how we believe they will continue to fall to offset wage price deflation against a backdrop of household debt to disposable income ratio which remains above >150 per cent as the RBA tries to stimulate domestic economic activity.

James McIntyre, head of economic research, Macquarie Securities Group

Australia's households are taking a pay cut.  Whilst Australia's labour market may be showing a pickup in jobs growth over the past few months, that jobs growth is not translating into growth in household wage and salary earnings. Weak wages growth and the shifting industry composition of jobs is weighing on the pace at which household pay packets are rising. As the mining boom moves from the employment intensive construction phase to the employment-lite production phase the number of highly paid jobs in the sector is falling.

Those jobs are being replaced by roles in other less well paying sectors. At present, the slowdown in household income growth is being offset by interest rate cuts and wealth effects from rising asset prices. Household spending is rising at a faster pace than income growth. Households are reducing their savings in order to fund growth in spending. To sustain spending, a pickup in income will be needed, or the RBA will need to further support spending through lowering rates to reduce debt servicing costs.

GOVERNMENT BONDS

Andrew Quin, research and strategy coordinator, Patersons Securities

We will be watching closely global Government Bond yields, Japanese and EU Bonds, and the 30-year US Bond yield, with its linkages to US mortgage rates and role as proxy for the "risk free rate".

Tim Carleton, principal and portfolio manager, Auscap Asset Management

We think one of the major ongoing risks to the Australian economy is a recession in China, potentially fuelled by the accumulation of bad debts against uneconomic property and infrastructure projects. We therefore keep a close eye on a number of the credit markets in China.

One measure we follow is the cost of protecting yourself against default by the Chinese Government on 5 year Chinese Government bonds. The measure is currently slightly elevated. A rising line indicates that the credit market is assessing that the risks of default are also rising, which we think is worth paying attention to.

Omkar Joshi, investment analyst, Watermark Asset Management

One of the key indicators to assess the health of the economy is the steepness of the yield curve. A steepening yield curve is indicative of a benign economic outlook in the short term relative to the long term. A flattening yield curve can be viewed in the opposite way. It indicates that either investors are increasingly uncertain about future economic prospects and are therefore happy to earn lower long term yields, or the current economic climate is so uncertain that investors require a yield premium in the short term.

Tamar Hamlyn, principal, Ardea Investment Management

Our focus in 2015 is on the potential downside risks to fixed income. While these risks have yet to emerge, they have been clearly foreshadowed in the German bond market.

The chart shows the sharp increase in German bond yields, commencing in April, which caused a corresponding fall in bond prices. To put this in perspective, the yield increased from approximately 0.08 per cent to almost 1 per cent in under two months. Volatility also doubled over this period. The challenge that lies ahead for investors is a potentially much larger move in bond yields, triggered later this year by an increase in the Fed funds rate or by an unwinding of very narrow credit spreads. The risk to investors is yet another period of turmoil and volatility as markets adjust. Investment strategies with downside protection that preserve capital and liquidity will be well placed to take advantage of opportunities that emerge as the transition takes hold, and are most likely to perform strongly.

Sally Auld, AUS/NZ head of fixed income and FX strategy, JPMorgan 

In thinking about what might be different in 2H15 vs. 1H15 (or in the coming financial year), one major change is likely to be the start of the Fed tightening cycle. Indeed, the last time the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates was nine years ago, in June 2006. The Fed is expected to be the first of the major central banks to end a multi-year period of near zero rates; JPMorgan is forecasting the Fed to commence the tightening cycle with a 25bp rate hike in September 2015.

Ongoing improvement in the labour market (a declining unemployment rate) no longer looks consistent with near zero rates. We then expect another 25bp rate hike to follow in December. For investors, the key point will be how financial markets react to the prospect of higher US rates; at JPMorgan, we are expecting a stronger USD, higher US yields and a modest gain in the US stock market through to year end. However, structurally lower levels of liquidity in global financial markets means that investors should be cognisant of the risk that that markets may not always accept the prospect of a higher US policy rate in an orderly fashion.

Jeff Thomson, portfolio manager, K2 Asset Management

The Federal Reserve remains on track to raise interest rates later this year, an event which will mark the beginning of the end of an extraordinary period of monetary stimulus.  Bonds look especially vulnerable to any upside surprise in inflation and/or re-acceleration of growth which means rates go up faster than is currently expected.  Given historically low yields and tight spreads, the risk/reward for bonds looks unattractive, and perhaps now reflects a degree of complacency and over-confidence in central banks.  Of course equities would not be immune from any correction in bonds, but as long as yields rise for the "right" reasons (i.e. better growth) we see no reason why equities can't continue to perform well over the medium term as improved economic fundamentals drive corporate revenues and underpin valuations.

Raaz Bhuyan, principal, WaveStone Capital

Since I picked this chart late last year as the one to watch for 2015, the US 10-year yield took a big leg down, hitting a low of 1.6% in January, helped in good measure by poor economic data out of the US in the first quarter as well as quantitative easing in Europe and Japan. More recently, the data from the US has been stronger and the US 10-year yield is now only back to late 2014 levels.

However, the likely quantum as well as pace of movement in yields higher still remains the most important influence for valuations across asset markets. The big fall in the 10-year yield from almost 5% in 2007 to the low 2% now has acted as a tailwind for equity valuations for all long duration stocks. In simple terms, we have seen a huge PE re-rating coming out of the GFC lows, even as corporate earnings have struggled to keep pace as investors have chased down higher yielding assets.

The unemployment rate in the US hit a peak of 10% in 2009 and is now at  5.5% - hardly a level which requires monetary accommodation to the extent currently in place.  Our view remains that any normalisation in the rate environment will have a bearing on equity markets, in that performance will be more driven by changes to companies' earnings and returns rather than a PE re-rating across the market, generally a good environment for active managers.